• Loss of indigenous-managed fire has driven Douglas fir encroachment across most surviving oak savanna; the climate envelope itself is not the limiting factor for Oregon white oak.
• Summer-drought intensification is on-trajectory for the oak-prairie palette, which is selected for it; lengthening dry seasons stress the conifer encroachers more than the savanna natives.
• Garden-relevant: Willamette Valley natives (Oregon white oak, camas, native Iris tenax, blue-eyed grass) carry forward strongly under projected warming — a model palette for the warm-dry-summer / wet-mild-winter PNW lowlands.