• Saguaro recruitment is highly episodic and tracks favorable monsoon years; warming summers and more variable monsoon onset are compressing the windows that historically produced cohorts.
• Buffelgrass invasion (Pennisetum ciliare) is the dominant non-climate stressor; once established it carries fire through saguaro stands that are not fire-adapted.
• Garden-relevant: Sonoran natives (palo verde, desert willow, brittlebush, penstemons) are a high-leverage palette for the broader Southwest as zones expand; cultivar selection from regional provenance matters.