2025

What this means for your garden

Catalog plants sorted by how the climate shift between today and 2025 changes their fit. Annual-marked plants are excluded — the projection doesn't change their single-season nature.

Which future is this?

These projections use a middle-to-high emissions pathway: not the optimistic case, and not the worst case. It is a sober comparison scenario for plant choices.

Plotwright uses one scenario across plant pages and regional views so the guidance stays comparable from screen to screen. Treat it as a planning signal, not a promise: local microclimates, soil moisture, exposure, and care still decide what survives in a real garden.

How we derive these zones

For each grid cell, we take the annual minimum temperature in each year of the 30-year window, average those across the window, and map the result to a USDA half-zone using the standard 5 °F bands. The same math runs identically on the historical 1991-2020 climatology and on the CMIP6 projections — only the input data differs.

Years between the four anchor windows are interpolated linearly. Confidence widens as the projection moves further from the present — tight ensemble spread reads as likely, wider spread as uncertain or wide.

Technical source details and the baseline-plus-shift method are listed on the Data & methods page.